Noah Barkin’s Post

The peace dividend is gone. That realisation is slowly sinking in over here in Europe, but not everywhere as quickly as necessary. Spain and Italy, laggards on military spending but the largest recipients of the EU recovery fund, will have received their last transfer for a very long time but are reluctant to ramp up spending. Germany has accumulated an eye-popping deficit of military equipment north of €200bn over recent decades that needs to be recovered. Quickly. And NATO's 2% target is for efficient armies, not for European ones. My latest for The Economist looks at the fiscal challenge, as part of this week's cover package on whether Europe is ready or not. (Spoiler: it is not.) https://lnkd.in/ej7jsXRR

The power balance in Europe is changing with the rise of Poland, according to Andrew Neil. He has highlighted how the eastern European nation is rearming at a "breath-taking" rate, leaving behind larger Nato allies. Andrew Neil said Warsaw is currently spending about three percent of its gross domestic product (GDP) on defence, this is set to rise to four percent by 2025. The "spending spree" will deliver the biggest "combat-ready, land army" in Europe and "one of the best-equipped". Mr Neil said power in Europe is shifting from France and Germany to the east of Europe. #defenceindustry #defencetechnology #defence #politics #europe

Plenary Session about "The #West after the #Ukraine War" at the World Policy Conference in Abu Dhabi. As for the European Union, I believe that the Russian invasion of Ukraine created a completely new space for the EU. The latter carried out a kind of Copernican revolution, in the sense that for the first time it was engaged in the military support of a country that was not a member of the European Community. Second, it decided to allocate such a huge amount of money for macroeconomic injections into this country’s budget. If I remember correctly, it was EUR 11.6 billion alone last year and we estimate it will be around EUR 18 billion for this year. For military purposes we allocated EUR 5.6 billion last year, not counting the financial support from individual member states of the European Union. This is a huge change in the activities of the European Union and they should be continued - I spoke at the #WPC #WorldPolicyConference #Global #Ukraine #Policy

🇪🇺🇬🇧🪖 As I predicted, military budgets in Europe will not increase. That would require economic growth; instead, Europe is facing recession (and deindustrialisation) due in no small part to sanctions on Russia, the country which they want to raise military budgets to counteract. We have already seen the UK top brass admit it will take *a decade* just to replace the arms sent to Ukraine (and thus return to an already inadequate prewar level). Now it's clear that Germany's grand plans are falling by the wayside. Europe is more reliant on the US than ever. - Collingwood

Did everyone catch the recent news about China's defence budget increase? If not, here’s a quick rundown of what's happening: 1.) The government announced a 7.2% increase for 2024, totalling nearly 1.7 trillion yuan ($236.1 billion). This marks a significant rebound and a continuation of a growing trend in their military expenditure. 2.) This budget is about four times that of Japan's and twelve times larger than Taiwan's. It clearly showcases China's intentions to further assert its regional dominance. 3.) While the official figures are impressive, the actual defence spending might be even higher. This includes expenses not traditionally counted in the defence budget, such as space exploration and dual-use R&D, suggesting a deeper commitment to military capabilities. This news might seem a bit distant, but the implications are closer than they appear. The increase in China's defence budget is not just about numbers; it's a bold statement of intent and strategic positioning. What's everyone else’s thoughts on this? Check out this video if you want to learn more: https://lnkd.in/e5w-EqJS #Defense #EconomicGrowth #Geopolitics #China

Right above this on my feed is a story about how the DoD failed six audits straight on six trillion in military assets. How did we calculate that 5%?